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Now that Brison isnât on the ballot, will KingsâHants return to its blue roots? One factor that could complicate the Conservativesâ chances of winning the seat again is Maxime Bernierâs Peopleâs Party â every vote his candidate captures improves the odds that the Liberalsâ JoÃ«l Lightbound will break the anti-incumbent trend in Louis-HÃ©bert. Itâs just one of the many suburban Greater Vancouver ridings the Conservatives need to win if they are to form a government; the party is hoping to take it back with a re-match between Hogg and former cabinet minister Kerry-Lynne Findlay. Will it be the decisive issue when they cast their ballots? But in this majority-francophone riding â the only one in Canada outside of Quebec or New Brunswick â the cuts made by Doug Fordâs PC government to Franco-Ontarian services could prove to be an obstacle to Lemieuxâs comeback plans, and an example of how Ford might be a problem for Andrew Scheer on the campaign trail in Ontario. Just over four-fifths of people in ScarboroughâAgincourt are visible minorities and nearly half are of Chinese descent, according to the 2016 census.
She might be helped by the mixed election results in the riding over the last two elections. The Conservatives will be hard-pressed to win most of the seats FranÃ§ois Legaultâs party captured a year ago, but they could paint some parts of the province Tory blue for the first time since the 1980s. But Brison resigned at the beginning of the year, touching off a sequence of events that ended with the departure of Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott from the Liberal cabinet and caucus and the partyâs subsequent drop in support. The Liberals are boosted by the presence of a cabinet minister â Maryam Monsef, minister for women and gender equality â but the riding was won by a relatively modest margin of just under nine points in 2015.
These are the big questions that will be answered on Oct. 21 when voters cast their ballots in Canadaâs 338 ridings â and how these 60 ridings swing will tell the story of this campaign. That victory marked the first time the Liberals had won in Kelowna since 1968 â the last time the Liberals were mounting their first campaign under a leader named Trudeau. Federally, however, Davenport was solidly Liberal from 1962 until 2011, when the NDPâs Andrew Cash made a breakthrough. Filion recently predicted the city could be in for some more drama, after the election of Doug Ford's PC party to govern Ontario. B.C. Interior and the Fraser Valley, The 60 ridings that tell the story of where the election will be won and lost, CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices. “Your best case scenario in neighbourhoods like those is prices will be flat,” says Kutyan. The good news for Philpott is that this part of the country is one of the few that has elected an Independent MP in the last 50 years: Tony Roman won York North as an Independent in 1984. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. Normally, Etobicoke North wouldnât be a riding to watch. At the very least, it will complicate the electoral dynamics in this seat, which elected a Liberal in 2015 but went Conservative in both the 2008 and 2011 elections. Whoever wins here probably will win the election. The Conservatives are banking on the local profile of Richard Lehoux, a former mayor, to bring the seat back into the Conservative fold. Wilson-Raybould won comfortably in 2015, but the NDP and Conservative candidates still managed a quarter of the vote each. Where do Justin Trudeauâs Liberals need to win to secure re-election? Mary Margaret McMahon and Coun. The two will be facing off again in this riding, one of many in the Halton and Peel regions that will play a big role in deciding if any party can win a majority government. Will Beauce go back to its roots or continue to be an exception? One Liberal cabinet minister who could be sunk by the purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline is Jonathan Wilkinson, who held the fisheries and oceans portofolio.
The Conservatives canât be ruled out, either: if Robinson and the Liberalsâ Terry Beech split the vote, the Conservatives could win with only a minor improvement over their 2015 performance. Even when the Liberals were at a historic low in 2011, they still won Guelph by a double-digit margin. So it was always going to be close â but the Liberals will be particularly focused on winning this seat again to keep it out of the hands of Leona Alleslev, who crossed the floor from their party to the Conservatives in 2018.
If the Liberals are banking on holding any seats in Alberta, Edmonton Centre should be right at the top of the list. The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible.
Two-thirds of the population in Brampton East is South Asian, according to the 2016 census. Three brand new seats will also be up for grabs this year, due to Toronto's redrawn ward map.
Andrew Saxton, who won the seat for the Conservatives in 2008 and 2011 and finished second-to-last in the 2017 leadership race, will be running against Wilkinson again. A lot of seats are up for grabs in Quebec this fall because of the NDPâs collapse in support in the province. In 2015, the Liberals nearly took this riding away from two-time NDP leadership candidate Niki Ashton by making significant inroads among Indigenous voters. A bellwether both federally and provincially until recently, this was a close three-way race in 2015 and both the Liberals and Conservatives will be looking to take advantage of the NDPâs lack of incumbency here. Depending on how the vote divvies up, there is the potential for Vancouver Granville to become a four-cornered contest this time â one that could go in any direction. Re: Ontario General Election Prediction thread « Reply #67 on: June 07, 2018, 12:45:11 am » Here is my final prediction - I will go out on a limb and predict a … The riding was a three-way race in 2011. In 2015, the Liberals scored an upset with their first seats in Calgary since 1968.
Depending on how the vote splits, any one of the other three parties could come out on top â a situation that could repeat itself in other parts of Quebec. But the retirement of some incumbent MPs could flip some traditional strongholds from Liberal red to Conservative blue. At the other end of the country, some coastal residents are lamenting the pipeline that wonât be built: Energy East. Had it gone ahead, the Energy East pipeline would have supplied the Irving refineries in Saint John and the federal government has been blamed in part for the cancellation of this project. Toet defeated the NDPâs Jim Maloway by 300 votes in 2011. Conservatives targeting the nationalist vote, Breaching the Liberalsâ Fortress Toronto, Alberta, the B.C.
Still, it will be difficult for the Liberals to win any seats in Alberta â including in downtown Calgary, the financial epicentre of the provinceâs oil industry. You can listen to Filion's predictions about that in this conversation on CBC Radio's Metro Morning. Willowdale Councillor John Filion calling it quits ahead of Toronto election, B.C. But while Scheer would like to repeat the success of âFord Nationâ, he might face an obstacle in Ford himself. But a few ridings in Ontario that otherwise would have been high on the Conservativesâ list of soft targets might be harder for them to win than previously thought â thanks to the unpopularity of Doug Fordâs Progressive Conservative government.
Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott will try to make the case for more non-partisanship in their bids to be re-elected as Independents, while Maxime Bernier will make the case that the voters that have backed him as a Conservative should follow him as leader of the Peopleâs Party. Voters in ElmwoodâTranscona like to keep things close. To defeat Justin Trudeauâs Liberals, Scheer will need to win where Ford won last year â while also distancing himself from the unpopular premier. Winning a majority government means winning most, if not all, of Mississaugaâs six seats. Paul, South SurreyâWhite Rock, StevestonâRichmond East, Lac-Saint-Jean, Louis-HÃ©bert, Trois-RiviÃ¨res, La Pointe-de-lâÃle, Mirabel, BerthierâMaskinongÃ©, Drummond, BeloeilâChambly, LaurierâSainte-Marie, Saint-HyacintheâBagot, Don Valley North, EglintonâLawrence, Etobicoke North, ScarboroughâAgincourt, York Centre, AuroraâOak RidgesâRichmond Hill, KingâVaughan, Richmond Hill, Whitby, Burlington, Milton, MississaugaâErin Mills, MississaugaâLakeshore, Calgary Centre, Edmonton Centre, KamloopsâThompsonâCariboo, KelownaâLake Country, MissionâMatsquiâFraser Canyon, Burnaby NorthâSeymour, North Vancouver, Saint JohnâRothesay, Charlottetown, Fredericton, Guelph, EsquimaltâSaanichâSooke, Victoria, MarkhamâStouffville, Vancouver Granville, Beauce, Audience Relations, CBC P.O.
A fast-growing riding full of young families, Milton is one Conservative riding where the Liberals might be playing offense.
At 47 per cent, StevestonâRichmond East has the third-most Chinese Canadians of any riding in the country. But the Liberals have nominated a former Olympian in Adam van Koeverden, suggesting they think Milton is a seat they can win. Halloween Pumpkins Reveal Furry Surprises in Toronto, Ontario, Bhagwat’s Speech Shows How His Tenure’s Heralded RSS’ ‘Coming Out’, People Can’t Believe This RNC Tweet About Donald Trump’s Priorities Isn’t A Parody. Hamilton is usually friendly territory for New Democrats. With a significant francophone population, OrlÃ©ans was long a Liberal stronghold: the party lost it only twice throughout the 20th century. When Doug Fordâs Progressive Conservatives won a big majority government in 2018âs Ontario election, he did so by winning most of the parts of the province that Andrew Scheerâs Conservatives need to win to secure a majority government of their own. Greens won the most votes just a few months ago â so it isnât outlandish to think the federal Greens could do the same. The profile of local mayor Richard HÃ©bert helped the Liberals win the seat â which had voted Conservative or Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois in every election since 1984 â but the party will face a challenge in holding it. Sheâll be facing off against former Liberal candidate and leadership hopeful David Bertschi, who will be carrying the Conservative banner this time. Polls suggest that the Ontario premier might be having a negative impact on Scheerâs election chances. It was a big breakthrough for the Liberals when they won Lac-Saint-Jean from the Conservatives in a 2017 byelection, as this was the riding where the party put up its worst result in the country east of Saskatchewan in the 2015 federal election. It has been a swing riding at the provincial level over the last decade; the provincial NDP took it by a margin of 42 points in 2018. Thatâs one reason why Saint JohnâRothesay could flip to the Conservatives â along with the ridingâs generally blue history and the fact that the New Brunswick PCs won all but one of the Saint John regionâs seats in the 2018 provincial election. In Toronto, he's covered everything from the Blue Jays to Toronto city hall.
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